Memory stocks have declined significantly in recent days. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron recorded price drops between 4 and 9 percent. The trigger: reports that the much-noted DRAM capacity bookings by OpenAI and Sam Altman were based on Letters of Intent (LOI), meaning statements of intent, not binding purchase contracts.
What Happened
In recent months, several reports had created the impression that OpenAI had firmly booked large quantities of High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and server DRAM for expanding its computing infrastructure. The market interpreted these signals as secure demand and priced corresponding growth into memory manufacturers' valuations.
Now it turns out: the agreements had the character of letters of intent. Letters of Intent signal interest and planned volumes, but are generally not legally binding to the same extent as firm purchase contracts. Specifically, this means: OpenAI can reduce, postpone or cancel volumes without contractual consequences of the same magnitude.
Why the Market Is Reacting
The correction in memory stocks has several causes that reinforce each other:
- Expectations correction: The LOI revelation forces analysts to revise their demand forecasts for HBM and server DRAM downward. What was considered a secured pipeline is now a letter of intent with an uncertainty margin.
- Weaker spot prices: DRAM spot prices have fallen by around 8 percent since February 2026. This primarily affects commodity DRAM (DDR5 for PCs and servers), not primarily HBM. But the sentiment carries over.
- More efficient AI models: New model architectures (Mixture of Experts, Sparse Attention, quantization) reduce memory requirements per inference request. If AI models need less DRAM per token, demand per deployed model decreases, even if the total number of deployments increases.
- General risk-off: In a market environment with geopolitical tensions (Iran/Gulf, US trade policy) and rising bond yields, cyclical semiconductor stocks are sold early. Memory is traditionally the most volatile part of the semiconductor value chain.
Assessment: Short-Term Correction, Not a Trend Reversal
The short-term price correction is real and justified. But the structural drivers of memory demand remain intact:
- HBM demand remains high: Nvidia Blackwell, AMD MI350 and Google's TPUv6 each require more HBM per chip than the previous generation. The capacity expansions at SK Hynix and Samsung are on track but are already largely sold out for 2026.
- Data center expansion: Microsoft, Google, Meta and Amazon have announced a combined total of over 200 billion USD in CapEx for data centers in 2026. A significant portion of this flows into memory.
- NAND supply tightening: Several manufacturers have not yet fully reversed production cuts from 2024/2025. The NAND oversupply of the 2022-2023 years has been absorbed.
Market observers such as TrendForce and IDC maintain their annual forecasts for 2026: DRAM revenue growth of 15-20 percent, driven by server and HBM demand. The spot price weakness is classified as temporary.
Conclusion
The memory industry is experiencing an expectations correction, not a demand crisis. The difference between an LOI and a binding contract may be legally subtle, but it is relevant on the stock market. In the short term, retail and spot prices fluctuate. Structurally, the shortage of DRAM and NAND remains according to industry consensus. Those investing long-term in memory are getting cheaper entry prices right now. Those trading short-term must endure the volatility.
Sources: TrendForce DRAM Spot Price Tracker, IDC Semiconductor Forecast Q1/2026, Bloomberg, Reuters.