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Pandorex · When AI replaces paid work

AI disruption radar

Which companies could lose their purpose when AI does the same work — or lets customers build their own solution? We examine the paid offering, concrete alternatives and the path to lost demand.

Research and listing status reviewed: · Edition 05

Research priorities

Top 20

9 business areas · across industries

Scenario horizon: up to 36 months

How we select companies →

01 · AI does the work

A tutor, translator, image generator or voice agent delivers work that previously required a paid provider.

02 · Customers build it themselves

Small teams build their own tools, automations or apps. Subscriptions, outsourcing budgets and prices could come under pressure.

The starting point is AI-driven replacement of a material paid offering. Financial health shows how much room a company has to adapt. A working AI alternative is evidence of capability; customer switching and lost revenue require separate evidence.

Top 20: business models under pressure

Research priority based on replaceability, evidence and switching barriers. Each scenario names the affected paid offering and what could protect the company.

20 / 20 research candidates

  1. 01

    Chegg

    Digital study support and homework solutions

    High replacement pressure
    AI does the workDisplacement already visible

    A general AI tutor answers the same assignment and explains follow-up questions without requiring a separate solution-library subscription. The previous main service can therefore become unnecessary for many users; this does not establish certain obsolescence of the entire company.

    What customers pay for today

    Chegg Study sells access to solutions and explanations for academic assignments. The thesis concerns this academic core; workforce skills and the new employability strategy are separate offerings.

    How AI replaces it

    ChatGPT Study Mode has offered tailored, step-by-step study support since 29 July 2025, including on the free tier. It is an available alternative for explanations and exam preparation; answers and learning outcomes still require checking.

    Estimated impact window

    Our assessment from 10 October 2026: substitution is already underway; 0–18 months for further academic-subscription and pricing adjustments. Whether the new business mix offsets the decline remains unresolved.

    What is already happening

    Observed: Q2 2026 revenue was USD 51.8 million, down 51% year over year. In the 6 August release, management identifies real AI headwinds. This supports an AI impact but does not quantify its share of the total revenue decline.

    What protects the company?

    Management reports strong monthly Chegg Study retention. Q2 skilling revenue grew 2%, and AI also reduces Chegg's costs. The shift toward employability can create different revenue streams.

    Share
    NYSE: CHGG
    WKN
    A1W4ER
    ISIN
    US1630921096
    Share price on finanzen.net ↗

    Latest available price

    USD 0.7362

    -49.23 % over 12 months

    Closing-price range: USD 0.45 – USD 1.55

    Monthly samples of split-adjusted closing prices; dividends excluded.
    09/10/202509/10/2026
    View price samples

    Monthly closing-price samples plus the period start and latest regular-session quote. Split-adjusted, excluding dividends; this is not a total-return chart.

    Chart values
    DatePrice
    09/10/2025USD 1.45
    31/10/2025USD 1.06
    28/11/2025USD 0.97
    31/12/2025USD 0.93
    30/01/2026USD 0.77
    27/02/2026USD 0.66
    31/03/2026USD 0.74
    30/04/2026USD 1.09
    29/05/2026USD 1.31
    30/06/2026USD 1.01
    31/07/2026USD 0.98
    31/08/2026USD 0.85
    30/09/2026USD 0.73
    09/10/2026USD 0.7362

    (Berlin time) · NYSE · Regular session, possibly delayed · Price data: Yahoo Finance ↗

    Financial context, next signal & sources (4)

    Q2 2026 free cash flow was positive at USD 6.4 million. The remaining USD 33.9 million convertible notes were fully repaid on 1 September 2026, leaving no outstanding debt. Product substitution must be distinguished from an unsupported immediate bankruptcy thesis.

    Track academic revenue, customer retention and new paying users. Stable renewals and profitable growth of the new offerings would weaken a company-wide loser thesis.

  2. 02

    Fiverr International

    Freelance marketplace

    High replacement pressure
    Both routesDisplacement already visible

    When clients complete basic tasks directly with AI, external work hours and the associated marketplace fee disappear. Small, standardized assignments are especially exposed.

    What customers pay for today

    Fee-based brokerage of paid freelance projects, including copy, basic design and coding.

    How AI replaces it

    Clients can create basic graphics and copy themselves using Canva's already available AI tools. More complex work still needs review and creative judgment.

    Estimated impact window

    Already visible; another 6–18 months from 10 October 2026 if automation of simple assignments persists. Estimate of fee and demand pressure, not an insolvency date.

    What is already happening

    On 29 July 2026, Fiverr explicitly reported AI-related demand weakness in simple tasks. This supports a partial mechanism, rather than explaining the entire revenue decline.

    What protects the company?

    Spend per buyer increased 15.6%. Larger assignments, human accountability and services revenue can cushion the loss of small tasks.

    Share
    NYSE: FVRR
    WKN
    A2PLX6
    ISIN
    IL0011582033
    Share price on finanzen.net ↗

    Israeli ordinary share, not an ADR.

    Latest available price

    USD 8.72

    -62.75 % over 12 months

    Closing-price range: USD 8.47 – USD 23.60

    Monthly samples of split-adjusted closing prices; dividends excluded.
    09/10/202509/10/2026
    View price samples

    Monthly closing-price samples plus the period start and latest regular-session quote. Split-adjusted, excluding dividends; this is not a total-return chart.

    Chart values
    DatePrice
    09/10/2025USD 23.41
    31/10/2025USD 22.64
    28/11/2025USD 20.93
    31/12/2025USD 19.76
    30/01/2026USD 16.75
    27/02/2026USD 10.83
    31/03/2026USD 10.02
    30/04/2026USD 11.64
    29/05/2026USD 10.99
    30/06/2026USD 10.32
    31/07/2026USD 8.93
    31/08/2026USD 9.48
    30/09/2026USD 8.62
    09/10/2026USD 8.72

    (Berlin time) · NYSE · Regular session, possibly delayed · Price data: Yahoo Finance ↗

    Financial context, next signal & sources (3)

    Q2 2026 revenue was $97.8m (−10%); marketplace revenue fell 15.5%. Free cash flow remained positive at $13.6m.

    Confirmation: further weakness in simple categories and buyer counts. Disconfirmation: higher-value work sustainably offsets lost marketplace revenue.

  3. 03

    Upwork

    Freelance and project marketplace

    High replacement pressure
    Both routesDisplacement already visible

    AI can perform simple project work and initial drafts for clients. Lower external paid work volume reduces the base from which marketplace fees are earned.

    What customers pay for today

    Fees from matching hourly or fixed-price work, including coding, research, writing and assistance.

    How AI replaces it

    Lovable generates and deploys web applications from natural-language instructions. Clients can start simple projects themselves and hire people mainly for review and completion.

    Estimated impact window

    Partly visible already; another 6–24 months from 10 October 2026 if clients complete more standard work themselves. The share of autonomously completed projects remains uncertain.

    What is already happening

    On 10 August 2026, Upwork confirmed that simpler work is shifting to automation. Clients already bring AI first drafts; Upwork is connecting AI agents with human work.

    What protects the company?

    AI-related gross services volume grew 22%. Integration, quality assurance and accountability can create new human projects and platform fees.

    Share
    Nasdaq Global Select Market: UPWK
    WKN
    A2N5QE
    ISIN
    US91688F1049
    Share price on finanzen.net ↗

    Latest available price

    USD 8.60

    -50.66 % over 12 months

    Closing-price range: USD 7.84 – USD 22.11

    Monthly samples of split-adjusted closing prices; dividends excluded.
    09/10/202509/10/2026
    View price samples

    Monthly closing-price samples plus the period start and latest regular-session quote. Split-adjusted, excluding dividends; this is not a total-return chart.

    Chart values
    DatePrice
    09/10/2025USD 17.43
    31/10/2025USD 15.94
    28/11/2025USD 19.74
    31/12/2025USD 19.82
    30/01/2026USD 20.03
    27/02/2026USD 13.42
    31/03/2026USD 10.96
    30/04/2026USD 10.35
    29/05/2026USD 8.82
    30/06/2026USD 8.36
    31/07/2026USD 9.16
    31/08/2026USD 9.03
    30/09/2026USD 8.16
    09/10/2026USD 8.60

    (Berlin time) · Nasdaq Global Select Market · Regular session, possibly delayed · Price data: Yahoo Finance ↗

    Financial context, next signal & sources (4)

    Q2 2026 gross services volume was $966.4m (−4%), revenue $191.7m (−2%) and net income $25.4m.

    Confirmation: standard categories lose more volume than AI work gains. Disconfirmation: complex projects and agent integration stabilize total volume.

  4. 04

    RWS Holdings

    Translation and localization

    High replacement pressure
    Both routesAI alternative documented

    AI translates standard content directly; clients can connect their own content systems. Fewer human-translated words and review hours may pressure services revenue and prices.

    What customers pay for today

    Paid translation and localization of corporate content, software and documents, alongside technology and specialized language services.

    How AI replaces it

    DeepL offers document translation, terminology and style rules, quality flags and Translation Flow for content systems. Its API enables custom automated workflows.

    Estimated impact window

    12–36 months from 10 October 2026 if standardized content can be reliably automated. Displacement is much less certain for regulated or liability-sensitive material.

    What is already happening

    DeepL described these offerings as available in May 2026. RWS reported lower Transform revenue; the sources do not isolate revenue loss caused exclusively by AI.

    What protects the company?

    RWS sells its own language AI and AI data services. Expert review, regulatory needs and new AI work can offset displaced translation hours.

    Share
    London Stock Exchange AIM: RWS
    WKN
    A14NG2
    ISIN
    GB00BVFCZV34
    Share price on finanzen.net ↗

    UK ordinary share; London quote in pence (GBp).

    Latest available price

    145.00 GBp

    GBp = British pence (100 GBp = 1 GBP)

    +59.17 % over 12 months

    Closing-price range: 68.45 GBp – 145.00 GBp

    Monthly samples of split-adjusted closing prices; dividends excluded.
    09/10/202509/10/2026
    View price samples

    Monthly closing-price samples plus the period start and latest regular-session quote. Split-adjusted, excluding dividends; this is not a total-return chart.

    Chart values
    DatePrice
    09/10/202591.10 GBp
    31/10/202577.50 GBp
    28/11/202579.80 GBp
    31/12/202586.40 GBp
    30/01/202684.00 GBp
    27/02/202676.00 GBp
    31/03/202676.20 GBp
    30/04/202688.90 GBp
    29/05/2026107.90 GBp
    30/06/202671.35 GBp
    31/07/202696.35 GBp
    28/08/2026125.40 GBp
    30/09/2026134.00 GBp
    09/10/2026145.00 GBp

    (Berlin time) · London Stock Exchange AIM · Regular session, possibly delayed · Price data: Yahoo Finance ↗

    Financial context, next signal & sources (4)

    H1 FY2026, reported 11 June 2026: Transform revenue was £210.1m (−4.6% organically). Group revenue grew 5% and adjusted pre-tax profit 33%.

    Confirmation: lower prices or human translation volumes alongside further Transform decline. Disconfirmation: technology and AI revenue sustainably offsets the decline.

  5. 05

    Shutterstock

    Stock images, templates and licensed media

    High replacement pressure
    AI does the workAI alternative documented

    Customers can generate a suitable generic visual directly instead of searching for and licensing an existing stock asset. For these jobs, the large library loses its previous scarcity advantage; entire subscriptions could shrink or become unnecessary.

    What customers pay for today

    Subscriptions and individual licenses for images, illustrations, templates and other media. Content generated three quarters of Q2 2026 revenue. The thesis targets generic advertising and website visuals; editorial photography and the data business differ.

    How AI replaces it

    Generative image models such as ChatGPT Images create and edit visuals from text instructions. The 2.0 generation documented on 21 April 2026 improves precise text rendering and complex image tasks. This establishes a technical alternative, not automatically identical legal protection.

    Estimated impact window

    Our scenario from 10 October 2026: 6–24 months for further substitution of generic image purchases and subscription pressure. Specialized authentic content can persist longer; no fixed obsolescence or bankruptcy date.

    What is already happening

    Q2 2026 content revenue was USD 165.7 million, down 17%; paid downloads were 98.7 million versus 112.6 million. The 4 August release identifies weak new-customer acquisition as the main reason. AI causation is plausible, but not separately proven by these figures.

    What protects the company?

    Rights-cleared content and training data remain marketable. Since 12 August 2026, a Claude connector has made Shutterstock licenses available within the AI workflow; AI can therefore improve distribution as well as cause substitution.

    Share
    NYSE: SSTK
    WKN
    A1J51N
    ISIN
    US8256901005
    Share price on finanzen.net ↗

    Latest available price

    USD 4.35

    -80 % over 12 months

    Closing-price range: USD 3.81 – USD 26.41

    Monthly samples of split-adjusted closing prices; dividends excluded.
    09/10/202509/10/2026
    View price samples

    Monthly closing-price samples plus the period start and latest regular-session quote. Split-adjusted, excluding dividends; this is not a total-return chart.

    Chart values
    DatePrice
    09/10/2025USD 21.75
    31/10/2025USD 25.03
    28/11/2025USD 20.82
    31/12/2025USD 19.10
    30/01/2026USD 19.85
    27/02/2026USD 16.80
    31/03/2026USD 16.61
    30/04/2026USD 16.17
    29/05/2026USD 14.89
    30/06/2026USD 13.95
    31/07/2026USD 5.40
    31/08/2026USD 5.54
    30/09/2026USD 4.22
    09/10/2026USD 4.35

    (Berlin time) · NYSE · Regular session, possibly delayed · Price data: Yahoo Finance ↗

    Financial context, next signal & sources (4)

    The Q2 net loss of USD 155.9 million includes a non-cash goodwill impairment of USD 173.7 million before tax following the terminated merger. The accounting loss is neither an equivalent cash outflow nor proof of AI causation.

    Track new content customers, downloads and subscription revenue, separating data and AI sales. Growing licensing through AI integrations could offset the library decline. The Getty merger ended on 7 July 2026; the two remain separate cases.

  6. 06

    Getty Images / iStock

    Premium imagery and stock-image licenses

    High replacement pressure
    AI does the workAI alternative documented

    For a generic advertising visual, AI can generate the desired image instead of the customer purchasing a library license. This threatens recurring creative subscriptions and iStock transactions; a synthetic image does not replace evidence of a real event.

    What customers pay for today

    Getty and iStock sell image and video licenses. The creative library for advertising and design is the exposed core; news, sports and event photographs provide authentic documentation and are less substitutable.

    How AI replaces it

    Text-driven image generators produce visuals on demand, including the ChatGPT Images 2.0 generation documented on 21 April 2026. The task and result overlap with generic creative licenses; commercial rights and liability require separate assessment.

    Estimated impact window

    Our scenario from 10 October 2026: 6–24 months for further pricing and volume pressure in generic creative imagery. Editorial content and proprietary AI licenses can limit the scale; financing deadlines are not AI-obsolescence dates.

    What is already happening

    Q2 2026 creative revenue was USD 127.4 million, down 2.6%, while editorial grew 9.2%. The 10 August release shows pressure in the exposed business, but does not establish AI as the sole cause. This does not imply total company obsolescence.

    What protects the company?

    Authentic editorial content, releases and indemnification add value. Getty offers its own Generative AI using licensed data and legal protection, allowing it to continue monetizing some image generation.

    Share
    OTC Pink Limited Market: GETY
    WKN
    A3DH6V
    ISIN
    US3742751056
    Share price on finanzen.net ↗

    Class A: OTC trading under GETY since 30 September 2026 following NYSE suspension; formal NYSE delisting is scheduled for 13 October. Yahoo supplies current GETY/USD quotes but still carries the old NYQ exchange label.

    Latest available price

    USD 0.047

    -97.87 % over 12 months

    Closing-price range: USD 0.041 – USD 2.36

    Monthly samples of split-adjusted closing prices; dividends excluded.
    09/10/202509/10/2026
    View price samples

    Monthly closing-price samples plus the period start and latest regular-session quote. Split-adjusted, excluding dividends; this is not a total-return chart.

    Chart values
    DatePrice
    09/10/2025USD 2.21
    31/10/2025USD 1.88
    28/11/2025USD 1.54
    31/12/2025USD 1.34
    30/01/2026USD 1.31
    27/02/2026USD 0.778
    31/03/2026USD 0.793
    30/04/2026USD 0.77
    29/05/2026USD 1.04
    30/06/2026USD 0.86
    31/07/2026USD 0.372
    31/08/2026USD 0.243
    30/09/2026USD 0.086
    09/10/2026USD 0.047

    (Berlin time) · OTC Pink Limited Market · Regular session, possibly delayed · Price data: Yahoo Finance ↗

    Financial context, next signal & sources (6)

    The 1 October 2026 SEC filing identifies going-concern doubt and ongoing discussions with capital providers. The share has traded OTC since 30 September. This additional financing pressure is relevant, but neither the AI thesis's admission criterion nor evidence of its causation.

    Track creative renewals, new iStock customers and AI revenue separately. Recovery despite widespread image generators would weaken the substitution thesis. The Shutterstock merger was terminated on 7 July 2026; do not assume a combined company.

  7. 07

    Teleperformance (TP)

    Customer service and business process services

    High replacement pressure
    AI does the workAI alternative documented

    When an AI agent resolves standard requests directly, clients need fewer externally handled contacts. Automated moderation can displace additional paid process work.

    What customers pay for today

    Outsourced customer care, support request handling and business processes, plus trust and safety work.

    How AI replaces it

    Intercom Fin can operate on multiple existing support platforms. Companies can use an AI agent for routine requests instead of additional outsourced handling.

    Estimated impact window

    6–24 months from 10 October 2026 for additional volume and pricing pressure if clients automate routine cases directly. Broad Care revenue displacement is not yet established.

    What is already happening

    On 30 July 2026, TP reported lower trust and safety volumes due to accelerated automation. This evidences one segment; Care continued to grow slightly.

    What protects the company?

    Its own AI solutions show double-digit growth. Integration and complex, regulated processes can generate new revenue.

    Share
    Euronext Paris: TEP
    WKN
    889287
    ISIN
    FR0000051807
    Share price on finanzen.net ↗

    French ordinary share; the portal retains the historical S.R. Teleperformance name.

    Latest available price

    EUR 71.80

    +12.72 % over 12 months

    Closing-price range: EUR 45.77 – EUR 75.94

    Monthly samples of split-adjusted closing prices; dividends excluded.
    09/10/202509/10/2026
    View price samples

    Monthly closing-price samples plus the period start and latest regular-session quote. Split-adjusted, excluding dividends; this is not a total-return chart.

    Chart values
    DatePrice
    09/10/2025EUR 63.70
    31/10/2025EUR 61.96
    28/11/2025EUR 59.24
    31/12/2025EUR 61.84
    30/01/2026EUR 54.60
    27/02/2026EUR 51.48
    31/03/2026EUR 50.28
    30/04/2026EUR 57.54
    29/05/2026EUR 63.04
    30/06/2026EUR 45.98
    31/07/2026EUR 69.00
    31/08/2026EUR 69.70
    30/09/2026EUR 70.22
    08/10/2026EUR 69.96
    09/10/2026EUR 71.80

    (Berlin time) · Euronext Paris · Regular session, possibly delayed · Price data: Yahoo Finance ↗

    Financial context, next signal & sources (3)

    H1 2026 revenue was €4.883bn (−1.7% like-for-like); excluding trust and safety, growth was 1.7%. Free cash flow was €243m and recurring EBITA margin 13.6%.

    Confirmation: clients permanently shift routine volume to their own AI and reduce TP contracts. Disconfirmation: new AI and outcome contracts offset lost contacts.

  8. 08

    Wix

    Website creation and operation

    High replacement pressure
    Both routesAI alternative documented

    For simple business, portfolio and campaign sites, an AI-generated exportable project can replace the recurring builder subscription. This covers building and running those sites; commerce, payments and complex operations remain harder to substitute.

    What customers pay for today

    Website subscriptions combining an editor, hosting, custom domains and business functions. Creative Subscriptions is a major revenue segment and also includes Base44.

    How AI replaces it

    Lovable builds and publishes websites; GitHub sync enables independent development and alternative hosting. This reduces editor dependence, while domains, hosting and maintenance still cost money.

    Estimated impact window

    Conditional scenario from October 10: 6–24 months for weaker new-customer conversion or pricing pressure in simple website subscriptions, if exportable AI sites operate reliably at a lower total cost.

    What is already happening

    On February 19, Lovable described FAQ and registration sites used internally. Publishing, custom domains and code portability are documented. These vendor disclosures establish functioning alternatives, not a measured Wix cancellation rate.

    What protects the company?

    Wix owns Base44, develops Harmony and also monetises commerce and payments. A simple code export does not reproduce these operations. Harmony has no separate editor charge, which does not establish a lower overall subscription price.

    Share
    NASDAQ: WIX
    WKN
    A1W7AU
    ISIN
    IL0011301780
    Share price on finanzen.net ↗

    Latest available price

    USD 76.56

    -44.81 % over 12 months

    Closing-price range: USD 40.43 – USD 145.54

    Monthly samples of split-adjusted closing prices; dividends excluded.
    09/10/202509/10/2026
    View price samples

    Monthly closing-price samples plus the period start and latest regular-session quote. Split-adjusted, excluding dividends; this is not a total-return chart.

    Chart values
    DatePrice
    09/10/2025USD 138.72
    31/10/2025USD 145.54
    28/11/2025USD 95.71
    31/12/2025USD 103.89
    30/01/2026USD 86.84
    27/02/2026USD 70.46
    31/03/2026USD 90.07
    30/04/2026USD 74.69
    29/05/2026USD 56.06
    30/06/2026USD 45.37
    31/07/2026USD 55.03
    31/08/2026USD 88.25
    30/09/2026USD 72.13
    09/10/2026USD 76.56

    (Berlin time) · NASDAQ · Regular session, possibly delayed · Price data: Yahoo Finance ↗

    Financial context, next signal & sources (7)

    Q2 2026, reported August 4: $563.1m revenue (+15%), including $398.4m Creative Subscriptions; bookings +12%. Reported figures show growth rather than an established AI-driven revenue decline.

    Separate core Wix acquisition, conversion, churn and pricing from Base44. Documented simple-site migrations with weaker bookings would strengthen the thesis; better conversion and AI contribution margins would weaken it.

  9. 09

    Endava

    Outsourced software engineering

    High replacement pressure
    Both routesAI alternative documented

    If small in-house teams use coding agents to deliver the same applications, outsourced engineering hours lose their traditional value. Endava's core business must then shift from staffing effort to measurable outcomes.

    What customers pay for today

    Custom enterprise software development, testing and maintenance delivered by paid project teams.

    How AI replaces it

    Devin and Windsurf automate implementation, tests and changes. Clients can use them directly and buy only architecture, integration or approval services; routine projects could shrink or disappear.

    Estimated impact window

    Estimate from 10 October 2026: 6–24 months for smaller routine-project budgets and pressure on hourly fees if clients deploy agents productively in-house. Complex core systems may need outside teams much longer.

    What is already happening

    Cognition's Endava case study reports roughly 30% higher productivity in selected workflows and over 2,000 provisioned employees. This is a vendor account of Endava's own adoption, not proof that clients are replacing Endava to the same extent.

    What protects the company?

    Endava uses the same tools itself. Dava.Flow, industry expertise, production accountability and outcome pricing can generate contracts and better margins. Additional software demand may more than offset saved hours.

    Share
    NYSE: DAVA
    WKN
    A2JRLY
    ISIN
    US29260V1052
    Share price on finanzen.net ↗

    US ADS representing UK Class A shares; the identifiers and quote link belong to the depositary security.

    Latest available price

    USD 2.01

    -77.54 % over 12 months

    Closing-price range: USD 1.65 – USD 9.65

    Monthly samples of split-adjusted closing prices; dividends excluded.
    09/10/202509/10/2026
    View price samples

    Monthly closing-price samples plus the period start and latest regular-session quote. Split-adjusted, excluding dividends; this is not a total-return chart.

    Chart values
    DatePrice
    09/10/2025USD 8.95
    31/10/2025USD 9.27
    28/11/2025USD 6.46
    31/12/2025USD 6.32
    30/01/2026USD 6.32
    27/02/2026USD 4.68
    31/03/2026USD 4.42
    30/04/2026USD 4.02
    29/05/2026USD 3.22
    30/06/2026USD 2.83
    31/07/2026USD 2.99
    31/08/2026USD 3.32
    30/09/2026USD 1.79
    09/10/2026USD 2.01

    (Berlin time) · NYSE · Regular session, possibly delayed · Price data: Yahoo Finance ↗

    Financial context, next signal & sources (5)

    Q3 FY2026 revenue was GBP 178.5 million, down 6.4% in constant currency. A 21 September notice targets annual results by 2 November 2026 while an independent accounting investigation continues. Neither the decline nor the investigation establishes AI causation.

    After the planned annual results, track client budgets, day rates and Dava.Flow contracts. Sustained reductions in outsourcing despite increased software output would matter; profitable AI-led growth would weaken the thesis.

  10. 10

    Concentrix

    Outsourced customer service

    Elevated replacement pressure
    AI does the workAI alternative documented

    AI agents can complete simple contact work. When clients automate handling internally, external work hours and potentially renewal prices decline.

    What customers pay for today

    Operation of customer service, contact centers and business processes for companies, including human handling.

    How AI replaces it

    Fin connects to existing support systems and handles routine requests. Clients can thereby process some outsourced contact volume themselves.

    Estimated impact window

    6–24 months from 10 October 2026 if companies scale AI customer care internally. Timing and the share of replaceable contracts remain uncertain.

    What is already happening

    AI-agent products are deployed; Concentrix also markets iXHello for automated workflows. A resulting net loss of client revenue has not been publicly isolated.

    What protects the company?

    Concentrix can operate AI itself and combine it with human case handling. Outcome-based contracts and complex processes can preserve fees despite fewer labor hours.

    Share
    Nasdaq Global Select Market: CNXC
    WKN
    A2QG33
    ISIN
    US20602D1019
    Share price on finanzen.net ↗

    Latest available price

    USD 25.95

    -45.95 % over 12 months

    Closing-price range: USD 20.97 – USD 48.01

    Monthly samples of split-adjusted closing prices; dividends excluded.
    09/10/202509/10/2026
    View price samples

    Monthly closing-price samples plus the period start and latest regular-session quote. Split-adjusted, excluding dividends; this is not a total-return chart.

    Chart values
    DatePrice
    09/10/2025USD 48.01
    31/10/2025USD 40.31
    28/11/2025USD 36.21
    31/12/2025USD 41.58
    30/01/2026USD 37.35
    27/02/2026USD 32.80
    31/03/2026USD 27.36
    30/04/2026USD 23.82
    29/05/2026USD 28.29
    30/06/2026USD 22.41
    31/07/2026USD 24.60
    31/08/2026USD 30.10
    30/09/2026USD 24.95
    09/10/2026USD 25.95

    (Berlin time) · Nasdaq Global Select Market · Regular session, possibly delayed · Price data: Yahoo Finance ↗

    Financial context, next signal & sources (4)

    Q3 FY2026, reported 29 September 2026: revenue was $2.454bn (−0.5% at constant currency); adjusted operating margin 12.6%, operating cash flow $268.2m.

    Confirmation: explicit contract reductions due to clients' own automation. Disconfirmation: AI contract revenue, retention and margins rise despite fewer manual contacts.

  11. 11

    TaskUs

    Digital customer experience services

    Elevated replacement pressure
    AI does the workAI alternative documented

    AI agents can perform routine chat and email work. Affected clients may handle standard contacts themselves and buy less external staffing capacity.

    What customers pay for today

    Outsourced digital customer care, alongside trust and safety and services supporting AI development.

    How AI replaces it

    A company can integrate Fin with its support system and automate standard requests. Human escalation remains necessary for difficult or sensitive cases.

    Estimated impact window

    12–36 months from 10 October 2026 if routine contacts move to clients' own automation. Current growth can disconfirm near-term company-wide displacement.

    What is already happening

    The alternative is available, but AI-caused net revenue loss at TaskUs is not established. Digital Customer Experience grew 6.4% in Q2 2026.

    What protects the company?

    AI Services grew 25.8%. Model training, human quality control and complex care may see greater demand while routine work is automated.

    Share
    Nasdaq Global Select Market: TASK
    WKN
    A3CR4H
    ISIN
    US87652V1098
    Share price on finanzen.net ↗

    Class A common share; the 2025 takeover proposal was not completed.

    Latest available price

    USD 8.14

    -44.59 % over 12 months

    Closing-price range: USD 4.57 – USD 14.69

    Monthly samples of split-adjusted closing prices; dividends excluded.
    09/10/202509/10/2026
    View price samples

    Monthly closing-price samples plus the period start and latest regular-session quote. Split-adjusted, excluding dividends; this is not a total-return chart.

    Chart values
    DatePrice
    09/10/2025USD 14.69
    31/10/2025USD 13.34
    28/11/2025USD 11.47
    31/12/2025USD 11.79
    30/01/2026USD 10.80
    27/02/2026USD 10.62
    31/03/2026USD 6.71
    30/04/2026USD 6.48
    29/05/2026USD 6.33
    30/06/2026USD 4.68
    31/07/2026USD 6.07
    31/08/2026USD 8.25
    30/09/2026USD 7.83
    09/10/2026USD 8.14

    (Berlin time) · Nasdaq Global Select Market · Regular session, possibly delayed · Price data: Yahoo Finance ↗

    Financial context, next signal & sources (5)

    Q2 2026, reported 5 August 2026: revenue was $308.9m (+5%) and free cash flow $32.6m. Adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 18.7%.

    Confirmation: clients explicitly reduce paid support hours because of their own AI. Disconfirmation: digital care and AI services sustainably offset automation.

  12. 12

    Coursera / Udemy

    Online courses and corporate learning

    Elevated replacement pressure
    Both routesAI alternative documented

    For standardized software and knowledge courses, an AI coach can explain material on demand and generate exercises. Employers can assemble training from their own materials. Payment for interchangeable course content becomes vulnerable; recognized credentials are harder to replace.

    What customers pay for today

    Course subscriptions, individual courses and enterprise licenses teach knowledge and job skills. Since the merger completed on 11 May 2026, Coursera and Udemy belong to one public company; do not count a second UDMY share.

    How AI replaces it

    Gemini Guided Learning has been available since 6 August 2025, combining tailored explanations, questions and exercises. Custom learning workflows using supplied materials are a plausible alternative to general course libraries, not a demonstrated replacement for credentialed programs.

    Estimated impact window

    Our scenario from 10 October 2026: 12–36 months for substitution of basic knowledge delivery and weaker willingness to pay. Enterprise rollouts and credential recognition determine the pace; this is not an insolvency timetable.

    What is already happening

    Q2 2026: comparable combined enterprise net retention was 91%, versus 95%, while paid subscribers rose 44%. The 29 July report therefore shows mixed demand. AI-driven customer losses have not been separately established.

    What protects the company?

    University and industry credentials, vetted content and enterprise administration protect the offering. Project Helix was previewed on 9 September 2026; broad enterprise availability is planned for H1 2027 and has not yet occurred.

    Share
    NYSE: COUR
    WKN
    A2QRZ7
    ISIN
    US22266M1045
    Share price on finanzen.net ↗

    This share has also represented Udemy since 11 May 2026; UDMY is no longer a separate second investment.

    Latest available price

    USD 5.16

    -49.36 % over 12 months

    Closing-price range: USD 4.64 – USD 10.73

    Monthly samples of split-adjusted closing prices; dividends excluded.
    09/10/202509/10/2026
    View price samples

    Monthly closing-price samples plus the period start and latest regular-session quote. Split-adjusted, excluding dividends; this is not a total-return chart.

    Chart values
    DatePrice
    09/10/2025USD 10.19
    31/10/2025USD 8.42
    28/11/2025USD 7.95
    31/12/2025USD 7.36
    30/01/2026USD 6.06
    27/02/2026USD 6.41
    31/03/2026USD 5.82
    30/04/2026USD 5.95
    29/05/2026USD 5.39
    30/06/2026USD 5.64
    31/07/2026USD 5.31
    31/08/2026USD 6.52
    30/09/2026USD 4.96
    09/10/2026USD 5.16

    (Berlin time) · NYSE · Regular session, possibly delayed · Price data: Yahoo Finance ↗

    Financial context, next signal & sources (4)

    Q2 revenue of USD 298.6 million includes Udemy only from 11 May; growth should not be read as wholly organic. The USD 80.4 million net loss accompanies USD 79.8 million of merger, integration and restructuring costs, not proof of AI losses.

    Check enterprise retention and revenue per paying learner after integration. Stabilization supported by demonstrated learning outcomes and Helix sales would weaken the substitution thesis; AI usage alone does not establish customer losses.

  13. 13

    Asana

    Task, project and approval management

    Elevated replacement pressure
    Customers build with AIAI alternative documented

    AI lowers the cost of building a task and approval app for a specific team process. With limited requirements, this could avoid buying or expanding a whole team subscription. Enterprise collaboration is much harder to replace.

    What customers pay for today

    Team subscriptions for tasks, projects, ownership, approvals and status views. A simple task app can cover substantial paid use by small teams.

    How AI replaces it

    AI-built trackers with a database, login, dates, owners and reporting can run the shared workflow. Maintenance and historical-data migration belong in the cost comparison.

    Estimated impact window

    Conditional scenario from October 10: 12–30 months for pressure on simple team subscriptions. Larger migrations could take 24–48 months, if operations, access controls and integrations become sufficiently equivalent.

    What is already happening

    On February 25, Lovable described a launch tracker built by product and marketing staff and used internally. It still connects to Linear: a real owned app that also demonstrates complementarity. The report does not establish Asana churn.

    What protects the company?

    Asana AI Studio and its agents can monetise AI themselves. The Work Graph, established collaboration and governance remain difficult to reproduce. Revenue growth and improved retention do not demonstrate established core-product displacement.

    Share
    NYSE: ASAN
    WKN
    A2QAMV
    ISIN
    US04342Y1047
    Share price on finanzen.net ↗

    Latest available price

    USD 10.07

    -33.71 % over 12 months

    Closing-price range: USD 5.46 – USD 15.19

    Monthly samples of split-adjusted closing prices; dividends excluded.
    09/10/202509/10/2026
    View price samples

    Monthly closing-price samples plus the period start and latest regular-session quote. Split-adjusted, excluding dividends; this is not a total-return chart.

    Chart values
    DatePrice
    09/10/2025USD 15.19
    31/10/2025USD 14.05
    28/11/2025USD 12.88
    31/12/2025USD 13.71
    30/01/2026USD 10.25
    27/02/2026USD 7.10
    31/03/2026USD 6.40
    30/04/2026USD 6.32
    29/05/2026USD 7.70
    30/06/2026USD 7.00
    31/07/2026USD 8.32
    31/08/2026USD 10.26
    30/09/2026USD 8.43
    09/10/2026USD 10.07

    (Berlin time) · NYSE · Regular session, possibly delayed · Price data: Yahoo Finance ↗

    Financial context, next signal & sources (5)

    Q2 FY2027 ended July 31, reported September 3: $216.4m revenue (+10%), net retention 97% and adjusted free cash flow $42.3m. Sub-100% retention shows cohort contraction; it improved and does not establish AI causation.

    Check documented DIY-driven cancellations, paid seats and incremental AI revenue. Further cohort contraction alone is insufficient; customer evidence must establish the link. Stable seats and rising AI revenue would weaken the thesis.

  14. 14

    Sprout Social

    Social-media management and analytics

    Elevated replacement pressure
    Customers build with AIAI alternative documented

    For small brands, an AI pipeline can plan content, generate variants and images, publish through APIs and log results. This makes a substantial paid publishing workflow reproducible, while licensed market data and comprehensive listening do not follow automatically.

    What customers pay for today

    Subscriptions for cross-channel publishing, engagement, reporting and social listening. Basic publishing use is more exposed than the full enterprise intelligence business.

    How AI replaces it

    n8n offers an importable pipeline for AI content, images, Instagram/Facebook/LinkedIn/X publishing and Sheets logs. APIs, model usage and maintenance add costs; the template does not mean free end-to-end operations.

    Estimated impact window

    Conditional scenario from October 10: 6–24 months for pricing pressure or fewer new basic publishing subscriptions, if API access persists and small teams can run owned pipelines more cheaply over time.

    What is already happening

    The published template connects generation, publishing and logging across platforms. This goes beyond one AI copywriting feature, but does not establish a Sprout customer migration. Vendor/author reliability claims lack independent verification.

    What protects the company?

    Sprout focuses on larger customers and develops Trellis for social intelligence. Data access, approvals, inboxes, history and cross-channel customer care retain value. Growth counters an already established core-product displacement thesis.

    Share
    Nasdaq Capital Market: SPT
    WKN
    A2PWF7
    ISIN
    US85209W1099
    Share price on finanzen.net ↗

    Listed Class A common share; excludes derivatives.

    Latest available price

    USD 11.00

    -6.3 % over 12 months

    Closing-price range: USD 4.99 – USD 11.74

    Monthly samples of split-adjusted closing prices; dividends excluded.
    09/10/202509/10/2026
    View price samples

    Monthly closing-price samples plus the period start and latest regular-session quote. Split-adjusted, excluding dividends; this is not a total-return chart.

    Chart values
    DatePrice
    09/10/2025USD 11.74
    31/10/2025USD 10.27
    28/11/2025USD 9.97
    31/12/2025USD 11.27
    30/01/2026USD 9.05
    27/02/2026USD 6.45
    31/03/2026USD 5.70
    30/04/2026USD 6.00
    29/05/2026USD 7.48
    30/06/2026USD 7.55
    31/07/2026USD 8.58
    31/08/2026USD 11.38
    30/09/2026USD 9.77
    09/10/2026USD 11.00

    (Berlin time) · Nasdaq Capital Market · Regular session, possibly delayed · Price data: Yahoo Finance ↗

    Financial context, next signal & sources (5)

    Q2 2026, reported August 6: $123.8m revenue (+11%), GAAP operating loss $2.7m and operating cash flow +$8.5m. Customers contributing at least $30,000 ARR increased 11%.

    Check evidence of full publishing-package cancellations caused by owned AI pipelines, pricing and smaller customer cohorts. Listening and enterprise growth can offset weaker basic publishing use.

  15. 15

    Freshworks / Freshdesk

    Customer service and support workflows

    Elevated replacement pressure
    Both routesAI alternative documented

    For simple email support, an AI system combining knowledge retrieval, replies, logging and human escalation can run a full standard workflow outside a traditional ticket subscription. It may also reduce human support seats.

    What customers pay for today

    Freshdesk subscriptions for enquiries, tickets, knowledge bases, escalation and support teams. The group also sells IT/employee service, whose full replacement is not established by this thesis.

    How AI replaces it

    An importable n8n workflow combines Gmail, Gemini, a Supabase knowledge base, logging and Slack escalation. An owned system still needs quality assurance, privacy controls, operations and reliable human handoff.

    Estimated impact window

    Conditional scenario from October 10: 12–30 months for fewer basic customer-service seats or subscriptions, if owned AI workflows deliver equivalent service more cheaply. Complex IT-service workflows may remain tied to the platform much longer.

    What is already happening

    A published n8n template describes the complete email workflow with retrieval and escalation rather than text drafting alone. It is an author/product disclosure, not an independently verified production benchmark or Freshdesk cancellation.

    What protects the company?

    Freshworks supplies Freddy agents, email automation and natural-language workflows itself. Growth and first-party AI adoption can offset seat pressure. SLAs, multichannel service, assets and IT processes are harder to reproduce than an email workflow.

    Share
    NASDAQ: FRSH
    WKN
    A3C28Z
    ISIN
    US3580541049
    Share price on finanzen.net ↗

    Latest available price

    USD 13.92

    +22.11 % over 12 months

    Closing-price range: USD 6.88 – USD 13.92

    Monthly samples of split-adjusted closing prices; dividends excluded.
    09/10/202509/10/2026
    View price samples

    Monthly closing-price samples plus the period start and latest regular-session quote. Split-adjusted, excluding dividends; this is not a total-return chart.

    Chart values
    DatePrice
    09/10/2025USD 11.40
    31/10/2025USD 11.10
    28/11/2025USD 12.14
    31/12/2025USD 12.25
    30/01/2026USD 10.78
    27/02/2026USD 7.82
    31/03/2026USD 8.03
    30/04/2026USD 8.16
    29/05/2026USD 9.71
    30/06/2026USD 10.12
    31/07/2026USD 11.36
    31/08/2026USD 13.92
    30/09/2026USD 12.79
    09/10/2026USD 13.92

    (Berlin time) · NASDAQ · Regular session, possibly delayed · Price data: Yahoo Finance ↗

    Financial context, next signal & sources (5)

    Q2 2026, reported August 4: $237.4m revenue (+16%), GAAP net income $3.2m. Constant-currency NDR remained 105%; management said Freddy Copilot attached to over 71% of new enterprise deals.

    Separate CX subscriptions, seats and constant-currency retention from IT/EX growth. Customer evidence of complete DIY migrations would be stronger than agent usage alone; higher revenue per customer from Freddy would be counterevidence.

  16. 16

    Globant

    Digital product engineering and IT projects

    Elevated replacement pressure
    Both routesAI alternative documented

    AI agents can perform substantial parts of traditionally billed development work. Clients could use smaller internal teams, while automation also pressures Globant to deliver more output per budget.

    What customers pay for today

    Engineering, design and integration teams that build and run digital products for companies.

    How AI replaces it

    Coding agents and AI app builders let clients create prototypes and simple applications themselves. Globant's own AI Pods demonstrate the second route: automated delivery priced by output or consumption instead of human hours.

    Estimated impact window

    Estimate from 10 October 2026: 6–24 months for greater pressure on conventional hourly contracts. Broad replacement of complex enterprise projects within that window remains uncertain.

    What is already happening

    On 13 August 2026 Globant reported USD 52.8 million Glob.AI ARR and output/consumption pricing. The delivery-model shift is documented; net displacement by customer DIY remains unproven.

    What protects the company?

    Proprietary AI offerings, client relationships and delivery accountability may help Globant adapt. More automated output can unlock new demand. Whether this more than offsets lost hourly billing remains to be seen.

    Share
    NYSE: GLOB
    WKN
    A117M8
    ISIN
    LU0974299876
    Share price on finanzen.net ↗

    Latest available price

    USD 36.32

    -38.94 % over 12 months

    Closing-price range: USD 27.73 – USD 71.21

    Monthly samples of split-adjusted closing prices; dividends excluded.
    09/10/202509/10/2026
    View price samples

    Monthly closing-price samples plus the period start and latest regular-session quote. Split-adjusted, excluding dividends; this is not a total-return chart.

    Chart values
    DatePrice
    09/10/2025USD 59.48
    31/10/2025USD 61.58
    28/11/2025USD 63.63
    31/12/2025USD 65.37
    30/01/2026USD 66.88
    27/02/2026USD 49.76
    31/03/2026USD 46.11
    30/04/2026USD 41.23
    29/05/2026USD 40.36
    30/06/2026USD 28.94
    31/07/2026USD 36.60
    31/08/2026USD 40.71
    30/09/2026USD 34.70
    09/10/2026USD 36.32

    (Berlin time) · NYSE · Regular session, possibly delayed · Price data: Yahoo Finance ↗

    Financial context, next signal & sources (4)

    Q2 2026: broadly flat revenue of USD 614.4 million; adjusted operating margin of 13.2%, down from 15.0%. Free cash flow: USD 12.6 million. These figures do not isolate AI causation.

    Check whether AI Pod revenue offsets declining traditional project budgets and whether group margins improve. Higher team output alone does not establish a loss for Globant; net revenue and retention are decisive.

  17. 17

    Adobe / Creative Cloud

    Image editing, layout and creative tools

    Elevated replacement pressure
    AI does the workAI alternative documented

    When a prompt produces a usable advertising visual, layout or edit, an occasional user needs less manual specialist software for that result. This can threaten additional creative seats and premium pricing without replacing every professional function.

    What customers pay for today

    Creative subscriptions for image editing, graphics, layout and video production. Basic, repeated creation and editing are most exposed; demanding production workflows and other Adobe businesses must be distinguished from them.

    How AI replaces it

    Claude Design launched on 17 April 2026 as a research preview for designs, prototypes and presentations. Users refine results conversationally and export them. Generative image models additionally perform visual creation and basic image changes.

    Estimated impact window

    Our scenario from 10 October 2026: 12–36 months for pricing and subscription-mix pressure in basic creative tasks. Broad obsolescence remains unproven; profitable AI growth could challenge the scenario.

    What is already happening

    The alternatives are real products. Losses of Creative Cloud customers to them have not been established: Adobe reported more than 150% AI-first ARR growth in Q3 FY2026. The damage thesis remains an inference from overlapping functions.

    What protects the company?

    Adobe sells AI functionality itself. Professional precision, editable projects, formats, collaboration and enterprise processes make switching harder than replacing individual generated visuals.

    Share
    Nasdaq: ADBE
    WKN
    871981
    ISIN
    US00724F1012
    Share price on finanzen.net ↗

    Latest available price

    USD 242.27

    -30.28 % over 12 months

    Closing-price range: USD 193.41 – USD 359.91

    Monthly samples of split-adjusted closing prices; dividends excluded.
    09/10/202509/10/2026
    View price samples

    Monthly closing-price samples plus the period start and latest regular-session quote. Split-adjusted, excluding dividends; this is not a total-return chart.

    Chart values
    DatePrice
    09/10/2025USD 347.47
    31/10/2025USD 340.31
    28/11/2025USD 320.13
    31/12/2025USD 349.99
    30/01/2026USD 293.25
    27/02/2026USD 262.41
    31/03/2026USD 243.08
    30/04/2026USD 246.10
    29/05/2026USD 259.21
    30/06/2026USD 205.02
    31/07/2026USD 250.41
    31/08/2026USD 292.79
    30/09/2026USD 239.94
    09/10/2026USD 242.27

    (Berlin time) · Nasdaq · Regular session, possibly delayed · Price data: Yahoo Finance ↗

    Financial context, next signal & sources (3)

    Q3 FY2026 ended 28 August: revenue was USD 6.76 billion, up 13%, net income USD 1.83 billion and operating cash flow USD 2.52 billion. These results contradict an already demonstrated company-wide AI decline.

    Check creative renewals, paid seats and revenue per customer against AI upsell. Sustained profitable subscription growth would contradict loss of the core market; weaker new bookings would still require checks for other causes.

  18. 18

    UiPath

    RPA and business-process automation

    Elevated replacement pressure
    Both routesAI alternative documented

    Computer-use agents and natural-language flows can run new simple UI processes without a traditional UiPath bot. If execution, controls and total operations become equivalent, complete small automation projects could be built outside UiPath.

    What customers pay for today

    Licences and subscriptions for RPA bots, operations and process/agent orchestration. The paid core is reliable execution of business processes rather than bot creation alone.

    How AI replaces it

    Microsoft documents Copilot-built Power Automate flows and computer-use agents for Windows/web apps. This is a competing executable stack; usage licences and governance remain necessary.

    Estimated impact window

    Conditional scenario from October 10: 12–36 months for fewer new simple RPA projects or licence discounts, if agents execute reliably, auditably and at a lower total cost. Critical installed processes may remain tied to the platform longer.

    What is already happening

    Current Microsoft documentation lists computer use with generally available models and billable execution. Product availability is documented; robust unattended replacement of complex UiPath installations or a specific customer migration is not established.

    What protects the company?

    Deterministic execution, permissions, audit and installed bot fleets create switching costs. UiPath combines agents with traditional automation; cheaper development can increase orchestration demand. Current disclosures do not establish AI-driven business deterioration.

    Share
    NYSE: PATH
    WKN
    A3CND6
    ISIN
    US90364P1057
    Share price on finanzen.net ↗

    Latest available price

    USD 13.48

    -27.17 % over 12 months

    Closing-price range: USD 9.38 – USD 19.29

    Monthly samples of split-adjusted closing prices; dividends excluded.
    09/10/202509/10/2026
    View price samples

    Monthly closing-price samples plus the period start and latest regular-session quote. Split-adjusted, excluding dividends; this is not a total-return chart.

    Chart values
    DatePrice
    09/10/2025USD 18.51
    31/10/2025USD 15.86
    28/11/2025USD 13.86
    31/12/2025USD 16.39
    30/01/2026USD 12.59
    27/02/2026USD 10.73
    31/03/2026USD 11.10
    30/04/2026USD 10.30
    29/05/2026USD 11.72
    30/06/2026USD 10.87
    31/07/2026USD 12.76
    31/08/2026USD 18.67
    30/09/2026USD 12.84
    09/10/2026USD 13.48

    (Berlin time) · NYSE · Regular session, possibly delayed · Price data: Yahoo Finance ↗

    Financial context, next signal & sources (5)

    Q2 FY2027 ended July 31, reported September 3: $410m revenue (+13%), ARR $1.938bn (+12%), net retention 109% and GAAP operating income $32m. Figures show growth and profitability.

    Check migration evidence for complete new automation projects, retention and licence discounts. Growing agent ARR and stable customer spending would be counterevidence; fewer bot-development hours alone are insufficient.

  19. 19

    monday.com

    Work management and internal business apps

    Elevated replacement pressure
    Customers build with AIAI alternative documented

    Small teams can build the board, form and approval system they need as an AI-generated app instead of buying more platform seats. The thesis concerns a complete simple team workflow rather than generated text alone.

    What customers pay for today

    Paid team platform for boards, tasks, forms, automations and basic CRM processes. Work management still provides most revenue.

    How AI replaces it

    Lovable generates databases, login, forms and views from process descriptions. An owned system may suffice for a small task or sales pipeline; integration and maintenance costs must be included.

    Estimated impact window

    Conditional scenario from October 10: 12–30 months for fewer new small-team subscriptions and seat expansions, if AI-built apps operate securely and total ongoing costs undercut subscriptions.

    What is already happening

    The May 6 vendor guide covers approvals, onboarding and deal pipelines with persistent data and access controls. monday vibe itself generates apps spanning multiple boards. Capabilities are documented; broad cancellations in favour of DIY are not.

    What protects the company?

    Strong growth and its own AI revenue counter an established displacement thesis. Shared data, integrations and enterprise governance complicate migration. monday vibe can satisfy demand for custom apps within the platform.

    Share
    NASDAQ: MNDY
    WKN
    A3CR1P
    ISIN
    IL0011762130
    Share price on finanzen.net ↗

    Latest available price

    USD 88.96

    -53.33 % over 12 months

    Closing-price range: USD 58.81 – USD 205.24

    Monthly samples of split-adjusted closing prices; dividends excluded.
    09/10/202509/10/2026
    View price samples

    Monthly closing-price samples plus the period start and latest regular-session quote. Split-adjusted, excluding dividends; this is not a total-return chart.

    Chart values
    DatePrice
    09/10/2025USD 190.61
    31/10/2025USD 205.24
    28/11/2025USD 143.86
    31/12/2025USD 147.56
    30/01/2026USD 114.75
    27/02/2026USD 72.64
    31/03/2026USD 69.11
    30/04/2026USD 65.87
    29/05/2026USD 83.62
    30/06/2026USD 72.39
    31/07/2026USD 87.15
    31/08/2026USD 101.14
    30/09/2026USD 78.46
    09/10/2026USD 88.96

    (Berlin time) · NASDAQ · Regular session, possibly delayed · Price data: Yahoo Finance ↗

    Financial context, next signal & sources (5)

    Q2 2026, reported August 10: $364.6m revenue (+22%), net retention 109% and $52.3m adjusted free cash flow. Management attributed 17% of net new ARR to AI products.

    Track paid small-team seats, retention and AI revenue separately. Documented cancellations or avoided purchases because of owned apps would support the thesis; growing AI ARR with stable retention would weaken it.

  20. 20

    HubSpot

    CRM, sales and marketing platform

    Elevated replacement pressure
    Customers build with AIDisplacement is still a scenario

    Companies mainly needing leads, deals, dashboards and basic follow-up may replace a Sales Hub purchase with an AI-built CRM. Applying this to HubSpot is a scenario; a documented HubSpot cancellation is absent.

    What customers pay for today

    Paid Sales/Marketing Hub packages for customer and pipeline management, automation and campaigns. The thesis concerns simple paid CRM contracts rather than the free CRM or the complete platform.

    How AI replaces it

    An AI-built CRM with a database, login and connected email/agent actions can cover small sales workflows. A cheaper pipeline does not automatically reproduce marketing automation, deliverability or comprehensive customer-data integration.

    Estimated impact window

    Conditional scenario from October 10: 18–36 months for fewer simple new CRM contracts, if owned apps remain reliable and ongoing integration/operating costs are genuinely lower. This supplies no replacement date for the integrated platform.

    What is already happening

    Lovable reported February 24 that Atonom replaced roughly $40,000/year Salesforce with an owned CRM costing about $1,200 including hosting and rejected HubSpot as an alternative. This named vendor/customer account covers limited needs; it is neither an independent cost comparison nor evidence of HubSpot churn.

    What protects the company?

    HubSpot is growing, connects marketing, sales and service and supplies Breeze agents and an updating CRM. The cited owned app replaces only the required subset. First-party AI and better data integration may strengthen buying reasons.

    Share
    NYSE: HUBS
    WKN
    A12CWQ
    ISIN
    US4435731009
    Share price on finanzen.net ↗

    Latest available price

    USD 228.30

    -49.6 % over 12 months

    Closing-price range: USD 170.28 – USD 494.58

    Monthly samples of split-adjusted closing prices; dividends excluded.
    09/10/202509/10/2026
    View price samples

    Monthly closing-price samples plus the period start and latest regular-session quote. Split-adjusted, excluding dividends; this is not a total-return chart.

    Chart values
    DatePrice
    09/10/2025USD 452.99
    31/10/2025USD 491.92
    28/11/2025USD 367.32
    31/12/2025USD 401.30
    30/01/2026USD 280.00
    27/02/2026USD 264.51
    31/03/2026USD 244.10
    30/04/2026USD 221.76
    29/05/2026USD 220.63
    30/06/2026USD 182.51
    31/07/2026USD 237.36
    31/08/2026USD 261.36
    30/09/2026USD 204.98
    09/10/2026USD 228.30

    (Berlin time) · NYSE · Regular session, possibly delayed · Price data: Yahoo Finance ↗

    Financial context, next signal & sources (5)

    Q2 2026, reported August 5: $911.7m revenue (+20%, +17% constant currency), GAAP operating income $43.3m; customers +14%. Figures counter an established displacement of the overall business.

    Seek named HubSpot customers fully replacing paid CRM packages with owned apps, including sustainable total costs. Fewer simple new customers alongside platform growth would be mixed evidence; strong Breeze/cross-sell revenue would be counterevidence.

Selection & evidence

Why would customers stop paying?

Follow the paid offering

Each case needs a material exposed offering, a named AI or DIY replacement, and a plausible route to lower demand or pricing. Ranking reflects our assessment of replaceability, evidence, speed and switching barriers. AI infrastructure providers are not included merely because individual features face competition.

Separate capability from business impact

“Displacement already visible” requires reported commercial pressure connected to AI. “AI alternative documented” covers real products and deployments whose net effect remains open. “Still a scenario” marks a reasoned hypothesis without demonstrated displacement. Vendor productivity claims are identified as such.

Time windows are conditional editorial estimates from the review date for pressure on the named offering. They do not predict when an entire company becomes obsolete or insolvent. Proprietary data, trust, distribution, integration, accountability and successful AI products can overturn a scenario. Share prices do not establish AI causation.

Review log

10 October 2026

  • 20 business models assessed for AI replacing the paid offering or enabling viable customer-built alternatives. Financial weakness alone is not an admission criterion.
  • Real AI products, reported commercial displacement and unproven scenarios distinguished. Impact windows and counterarguments included for every company.
  • Listings, acquisitions and identifiers rechecked: Coursera/Udemy treated as one company; Getty reflects its current OTC status. Every share includes a finanzen.net link and price history.

Every listed share includes WKN, ISIN, a finanzen.net link and a timestamped price with history. Quotes are checked on visits and hourly while viewing; desktop links open a new tab and phone links the current tab. The recurring editorial research prompt and schedule are still to be defined.